Thursday, May 24, 2007

Red Toryism: One Man's Definition

I don't like to recycle material on this blog, but in response to several queries, he again is one person's view of what it means to be a Red Tory:

A red tory is a compassionate conservative, driven by a concern for community over individualism, the collective well-being over personal self-interest, Burke over Mill, social responsibility over token rights, societal responsibility over state responsibility, fiscal responsibility over socialism, and responsible government over mob rule. In particular, four (4) interrelated principles underlie "red toryism" as an ideology:

1. Tradition & Incrementalism: The tory philosophy is one in which society evolves gradually, remains stable but not static, and relies on tradition as a guide for the future.

2. Organicism & the Social Fabric: Core to the red tory ideology is the belief that society is more than a sum of its parts. It was Burke who invoked the term "social fabric" as a metaphor to describe society as a collection of individuals who, when woven together like threads, produce a much stronger and grander entity.

3. Ascription & Imperfection: The very essence of toryism is rooted in the Protestant belief in human imperfection, and the existence of a ‘natural hierarchy’ in society such that only the most capable should assume positions of authority. For red tories, while the social ladder exists, it is still accessible to those with lower social status, who may climb it gradually through their lifetimes and initiative, or over the course of several generations.

4. Paternalism & Noblesse Oblige: In essence, then, toryism is a belief system that combines paternalism and collectivism through the concept of ‘noblesse oblige’. In the tory view of community, one discovers a sense of mutual obligation – of duties and privileges, rights and responsibilities – such that those in positions of privilege owe concern to those of lower social and political status, while the latter owe a certain degree of deference to elites. Labeled "tory democracy", this set of values may help to explain the ebbing of red toryism in an age of declining social and political deference.Overall, red toryism implies an easy acceptance of, but a low tolerance for, economic and social inequality, and displays a communitarian concern for the care of the less-fortunate in society.

RED TORYISM & THE THIRD WAY

Ever notice the similarities between social democrats and red tories, these days? No, I'm not talking about Jack Layton -- I mean realistic social dems. If you cover up the byline, you may find yourself nodding at old Tony Blair, Ed Broadbent, Roy Romanow or Gary Doer speeches. It's no coincidence -- the so-called "Third Way" to which these men have committed themselves bears a striking resemblance to classic Red Toryism:

1. Fundamentally, both share an inclusive, organic view of society, including a belief in the necessity of mutual obligation to bind together members of the community. This view conflicts with the atomistic, liberal notion of society as a collection of competing individuals.

2. Both red toryism and the third way treat society and the market as separate, but interdependent. For red tories, this is embodied in the desire to put politics before economics when necessary; for social democrats, it means striving to prevent a market society from evolving out of a market economy.

3. In this vein, both ideologies also view the state as a positive instrument in society, and promote government intervention in the economy when necessary to promote the interests of the community (red toryism) or achieve social justice (the third way).

4. Yet, both are rooted in what Giddens (1998: 66) calls "philosophic conservatism," and stand opposed to revolutionary changes to society and its political institutions. Rooted in a strong distrust or dissatisfaction with the type of sweeping social plans embodied in socialism, red toryism and the third way advocate progressive, incremental reform.To say that Third Way social dems "stole" our doctrine is a little harsh. After all, imitation is the highest form of flattery. It does help to explain why some of us are drawn to moderates like Doer and Broadbent, though -- especially considering the socon and neocon leanings of so many so-called "Tory" leaders.

RED TORYISM AND THE REST OF THE CONSERVATIVE FAMILY

Perhaps the simplest way to conceptualize an ideology like conservatism is to divide it into a series of functional dimensions. In this case, six seem especially pertinent (dramatic oversimplifications of each term are given in parentheses):

(1) MORAL CONSERVATISM* (a.k.a., NEO-conservatism; emphasis on traditional family values; often, but not always, tied to religious beliefs)

(2) SOCIAL CONSERVATISM*^ (opposition to social engineering, including affirmative action; emphasis on law, order and security)

(3) FISCAL CONSERVATISM^ (a.k.a., neo-liberalism; emphasis on fiscal orthodoxy, including balanced budgets, deregulation, privatization, debt repayment, and tax relief; note: there is a distinction between being fiscally conservative and fiscally responsible -- politicians of all political stripes pay lip service to the latter)

(4) POPULISM~ (a belief in grass-roots democracy, often in opposition to political partisanship and other top-down institutions like Parliament; often, but not always, mixed with libertarianism; see: Thomas Jefferson)

(5) HIGH TORYISM~ (a belief in parliamentary sovereignty, often in opposition to direct democracy and judicial activism; often accompanied by a communitarian/patriotic view of the state; see: Alexander Hamilton and Edmund Burke)

(6) LIBERTARIANISM (a belief in the sovereignty of the individual and the limitations of government in the moral, social, and economic spheres)

*The distinction between #1 and #2 is no doubt the trickiest. In every-day language, both moral and social conservatives have been lumped under the "SO-CON" label. While there is a correlation between the two sets of values, it's important to distinguish between the two. Logically, a person could be a moral conservative without being a social conservative (and vice versa).

^Both social and fiscal conservatism often favour limited state interference in the economy, and a guaranteed but limited social welfare system.

~This is where there is often a direct conflict within conservative ranks, between those who favour a grass-roots style of politics and those that favour an elite-driven version.

People do not have to conform to any one of these labels. In fact, few, if any conservatives are members of only one 'camp'. As mentioned, people with moral and social conservative tendencies are often referred to as "SO-CONS". People with moderate fiscal conservative leanings and tendencies toward "high toryism" -- without a touch of moral or social conservatism -- are often called "RED TORIES". In the United States, the "NEW RIGHT" consists of "neo-cons" and "neo-liberals". And so on. The point is not to pigeon-hole people into one class of conservatism. Quite the opposite.

The purpose of this discussion has been to highlight how not all C/conservatives are created equal. The next time you hear someone painting us all with the same brush, think twice.

Turnout in Manitoba

The Winnipeg Free Press is reporting that turnout in Tuesday's election was 58%, up from 54% in 2003, but still low by historical standards.


Graph courtesy: CBC News

Why? A combination of factors are at play: the low level of competitiveness of the two most-recent elections ; the campaign finance reforms introduced in 2000 (which have crippled the parties' ability to advertise and get out the vote); global trends in voter apathy (particularly among youth); the timing of this year's election (after May Long Weekend); and others.

Should we be worried?

Tapping on the Glass Ceiling

Manitoba is #1 in something... and for once it's a good thing. The results of Tuesday's election have placed the province at the top of the nation in terms of the proportion of women elected to the legislature. Women now comprise 18 of 57 MLAs (31.5%, 13 NDs, 5 Tories). Second place: PEI @ 25.9%.

What is more, if you've met any of these women, you know they're not 'token' members. They haven't been handed their nominations (unlike many Federal Liberals), and they did not win in "safe seats". Almost all of them have survived tight races in the past few elections. And both major parties have a strong female contingent.

There won't be enough room in Cabinet for complete gender parity... Despite their unquestioned talent, too many of the women represent the same region, South Winnipeg; regional balance will take precedence when Doer chooses his new Executive Council.

Don't pop the champagne quite yet. There's still a lot of work to do to achieve a 50/50 split in the legislature. But at least we're finally tapping on the glass ceiling.

Tuesday, May 22, 2007

Manitoba Election Night Blog

12:00am: Anyone who has information on voter turnout in this election, please let me know.

11:20pm: One final thought: McFadyen got one thing right. In his concession speech he noted: "Manitobans were clearly not looking for change today." Can anyone recall an election that changed so little? Only three seats changed hands (Kirkfield Park and Southdale to the NDP, Brandon West to the Conservatives). Only one cabinet minister was ousted (Scott Smith). The popular vote swung about 2 percentage-points. I'm all ears if anyone remembers a similar event.

11:18pm: Some final thoughts:

*The NDP -- Merely maintaining the party's level of popularity is a huge credit to the Premier and his advisors. Tying Duff Roblin's (1966) modern record of 36 seats and a third straight majority is historic. Doing so while increasing its presence in the legislature following each campaign: unprecedented. Few parties in Canadian history have been able to sustain momentum over such a long period of time. Kudos where kudos is due. Some reasons for concern: First, the Premier will have some difficult decisions to make regarding cabinet positions. Only one minister was ousted, which leaves a lot of incumbents. Tim Sale's retirement and Scott Smith's loss will free up some room, but he's got a ton of new talent -- particularly suburban women -- to bring into the fold. He left a lot of people out of portfolios last time around, too, which means plenty of resumes will be on Doer's desk tomorrow morning. Second, while the NDP now finds itself with an unprecedented level of support inside the Perimeter, the party has lost its momentum in Southern rural ridings. The Yellowhead is even more blue than before, and the Tories have regained traction in Brandon. The rural-urban divide -- so evident in federal politics, and a hallmark in provincial politics -- is deeper than ever in Manitoba. Doer's replacement -- and "Tomorrow's NDP" -- will have to contend with this climate in the next campaign. Will the party extend another olive branch to rural Manitoba, or content itself with fortifying Fortress Winnipeg? My money's on the latter. The challenges ahead: breaking the rest of the Manitoba electoral records. Can the NDP tie Duff Roblin's 4 consecutive election victories (1958, 1959, 1962, 1966)? Can they become the first Manitoba party in history to win 4 consecutive majorities? One record that will have to wait: Duff is the only party leader to win 40% of the popular vote in four consecutive elections. (Doer would have to win two more landslides to equal that mark.) The fact that Today's NDP is competing against a Tory leader from over 4 decades ago should be disheartening to Today's PC's.

*The PCs -- A disappointment. No one expected McFadyen to win this election, but they expected him to better Stuart Murray's lackluster effort in 2003. He didn't. The Tories regained control of rural strongholds like Minnedosa and Russell, but lost almost everything in South Winnipeg. (Only McFadyen's Fort Whyte seat stood between Doer and a sweep of the region.) On the bright side, the PC party has only one direction to go: up. This is rock bottom for the party, and -- at over a third of the popular vote and seats -- it's still not all that bad. McFadyen needs more time to establish a rapport with the people, and to hone his political sense. (The Jets policy aside, he ran a fairly solid campaign.) The party looks to be on solid financial ground. What is more, the likelihood of the NDP holding on to South Winnipeg is very low. Doer cannot afford to put all of his new MLAs in Cabinet, and some of their seats will be prime for takeover next time around (Kirkfield Park, in particular). All of this said, the Conservatives have some soul-searching to do. McFadyen has two main challenges: (1) Balancing the desires of his rural base (his saviour), with his own need to break back into the urban ridings; and (2) Fending off Borotsik, who is certain to earn a prime position in the shadow cabinet, and the moral support of those in rural Manitoba. It's a long, uphill road ahead. But remember: No modern (post-1958)) Manitoba government has ever won 4 successive majorities.

*The Liberals: Just holding on to two seats ought to be a victory, but Gerrard and Lamoureux held out real hope for gaining official party status (4 seats). They'll have to settle for maintaining the status quo. It's unlikely Gerrard will stay on as leader in the next election. He's done well just to keep the party on the floor of the legislature. Lamoureux is an obvious contender to replace him, although the party may be well advised to seek a fresh face as his opponent. For now, the Liberals will have to content themselves with being the province's political conscience. As history tells us, only a charismatic leader (like Sharon Carstairs), or an upsurge in the Federal Liberals' fortunes, will provide the breakthrough the party needs.

*The Greens: At 0.38% of the popular vote, the party is dead. The Greens may blame the fact that they lacked the resources or volunteers to mount a credible campaign, but the real blame lies with the party membership, itself. Elect an undergraduate student as a party leader, and that's what you get. Not that there was much room on the left, to begin with.

10:28pm: Final results:

NDP -- 36 seats (+1) 47.7% vote (-1.8)
PC -- 19 seats (-1) 38.2% vote (+2.0)
LIB -- 2 seats (/) 12.41% vote (-0.8)

10:22pm: Some last-minute good news for the Tories. CBC predicts Mitchelson will hold on to the Tory seat in River East. With all polls reporting, she's won by 49 votes. Likely enough to withstand a mandatory recount. Better news for the party (but bad news for McFadyen): Borotsik wins Brandon West. With all polls reporting, he wins by 58 votes. Scott Smith is the only cabinet minister to lose his seat. The Tories lose only one seat: Kirkfield Park.

10:16pm -- Let's clarify the results: McFadyen will increase the Tories' share of the popular vote (from 36.7% to 38.23%), but lose between 3 and 5 seats. Why? Heading into the election, the Tories were actually leading in terms of the popular vote, prompting some to predict a possible "wrong-winner" outcome. Boy, were they wrong. While a dead-heat in the popular vote favors the NDP, the Tories actually lost votes during the campaign. The impetus for the decline: the Jets comment. Plain and simple. Manitobans have sent Hugh back to the Ledge to study up. He'll take the opportunity.

10:15pm -- Mitchelson is behind by 14 votes with 1 poll yet to report. We're looking at a recount, for sure.

10:13pm -- The electoral map has changed -- albeit subtly -- for the first time in 4 decades. The NDP has stolen South Winnipeg from the Tories, building on momentum from 1999 and 2003. The breakthrough is a sure sign that Doer's Third Way has won over the middle-class, Tim Horton's / soccer mom crowd. South Winnipeg is no longer the Tory bastion it once was. On the other hand, the more things change, the more they stay the same. The Tories have regained their feet in rural Manitoba, actually increasing their strength -- particularly along the Yellowhead highway. Russell and Minnedosa are back in the "solid-blue" category. Sadly for the Conservatives, this is their only area of strength.

10:08pm -- Let's talk women. Gary Doer will have big decisions to make -- and has a great opportunity to create gender parity in Cabinet. The suburbs are teeming with great MLAs, who just happen to be NDP women. Here are some top contenders:
*Theresa Oswald (Seine River) -- She has to be in the inner-circle; top contender for Doer's job once he steps down.
*Diane McGifford (Lord Roberts) -- She will be in Cabinet. The only question is: where?
*Erin Selby (Southdale) -- She stole Reimer's seat. If Doer wants to shore up his new suburban beach head in South Winnipeg, look for Selby to be given a junior portfolio.
*Kerri Irvin-Ross (Fort Garry) -- She was shuffled into cabinet last term, and won the seat handily this time around. Look for her to be shuffled out of Healthy Living in favor of Selby.
*Roseann Wowchuk (Swan River) -- Ag Minister. She's done a great job.
*Marilyn Brick (St. Norbert) -- Gotta be a minister.
*Nancy Allan (St. Vital) -- Her, too.
*Christine Melnick (Riel) -- A shoe-in.
*Bonnie Korzeniowski (St. James) -- Might get into Cabinet.
*Erna Braun (Rossmere) -- Longshot.
*Sharon Blady (Kirkfield Park) -- A longshot for Cabinet. Too inexperienced. The NDP may be willing to sacrifice this seat next time around, as the Tories will be sure to run a high profile challenger to win it back.

The Tories only have Myrna Driedger (Charleswood), Leann Rowatt (Minnedosa), Mavis Taillieux (Morris), and Heather Stefanson (Tuxedo) left. Mitchelson's on the bubble in River East.

9:50pm -- No cabinet minsters have lost yet. That's a telling statistic.

9:46pm -- Brandon West and River East are the only two seats left in play.

9:45pm -- Ron Lemieux holds on in La Verendrye. Tories are in big, big trouble.

9:42pm -- Oswald is elected in Seine River and Selby in Southdale. The NDP has quite the compliment of women -- perhaps even stronger than the Tories, now.

9:40pm -- Derkatch wins in a blowout in Russell. The Yellowhead is coated with blue.

9:39pm -- Bonnie Mitchelson's in trouble in River East. This would be a huge blow to the Tories, and break up their women's caucus.

9:37pm -- Isn't it somewhat ironic that the biggest Jets fans are in the rural areas? Maybe they should move the NHL team to Brandon or Portage?

9:36pm -- Faurschou holds onto Portage for the Tories. Another 500-vote victory, but they'll take any seat they can get.

9:34pm -- Minnedosa goes solidly Tory. Don't expect Doer to be paving any more highways or building any more libraries along the Yellowhead this term.

9:29pm -- Update on the seats the Tories targeted: Good news in Brandon West and La Verendrye... Borotsik and Stefaniuk are holding their own against Smith and Lemieux. Bad news in Riel, Assiniboia, and The Maples: The NDP won, and it wasn't even close.

9:23pm -- Caldwell holds Brandon East for the NDP, but Borotsik's giving Smith a run for his money in Brandon West. This one could be entertaining. If I'm McFadyen, I'm torn -- The Tories need the seat, but Borotsik is #1 in line for the leadership.

9:13pm -- Benchmarks to watch:

Doer's performance in 2003: 49.47% popular vote; 35 seats.
Biggest blowouts since 1958: 36 seats (Roblin PCs 1959, 1962); Doer's 49.47% in 2003.
Lowest turnout: 54.17% (2003)

9:05pm -- NDP holds on to Radisson.

9:o3pm -- Brick wins St. Norbert. Looks like an NDP sweep in the suburbs. Doer could actually increase his majority. It's the Jets comment (and low turnout).

9:03pm -- PC's pull ahead in La Verendrye. Lemieux looks like he could be vulnerable.

9:00pm -- Liberal vote looks very, very weak. This is a surprise. Perhaps the party is the biggest victim of voter apathy after the long weekend? Gerrard deserved better than 12%.

8:58pm -- Newsworld stops its coverage on TV. Discrimination!

8:57pm -- Conrad Santos loses. NDP keeps Wellington. Thank goodness: no more knives in the house chamber!

8:55pm -- Lamoureux wins in Inkster, and Gerrard in River Heights. Liberals hold their ground.

8:55pm -- Irvin-Ross wins in Fort Garry. Bad sign for the Tories in the suburbs.

8:54pm -- Blady wins Kirkfield Park. Stuart Murray must be secretly chuckling. Stefanson's old seat has gone Dipper. Wow. A bad sign for the Conservatives. They're now admitting they were out-campaigned. No kidding.

8:52pm -- Update on the swing seats... Tories ahead only in Minnedosa. NDP ahead everywhere else: St. Norbert, Southdale, La Verendrye, Radisson, Seine River, Rossmere, Brandon East.

8:49pm -- The night's not over yet. The overall outcome may be a foregone conclusion, but it will be interesting to see if Doer can make breakthroughs in the rural South. It looks like he might sweep the suburbs. Or, can McFadyen regain some momentum and set up a real rural-urban divide in the province?

8:46pm -- Things to watch in the coming weeks: Will Gerrard follow through on his promise to buy carbon offsets to pay for the Liberal campaign?

8:42pm -- CBC calls the election. That didn't take long. Doer with a third consecutive majority. Historic. Not even the Dippers expected a call this early. The convention hall is still empty. Doer's still out on his walk.

8:42pm -- Oooh... Those early Winnipeg numbers look bad for Tories. 55% and leading or elected in 26 of 30 seats for the NDP in the city.

8:41pm -- More on Coletto's hackery: No kidding, the campaign finance rule changes have impacted the outcome of this election. But how? Once the parties file their returns, we'll probably see the Tories raised more money than the NDP, and the Liberals did better than expected. That's from my interviews, anyway. By the way: Coletto's turned off his cell phone in order to avoid me.

8:38pm -- Paul Thomas is right (what else is new): The Tories need to win by 5 percentage-points in the provincial popular vote in order to win a majority. A reason for electoral reform?

8:34pm -- Ashton is elected. No surprise.

8:31pm -- Coletto's email is on CBC. Hack! Blatant plagiarism of a paper by David Stewart and myself. Sad, sad, sad. Shame, shame, shame.

8:28pm -- Paul Edwards is representing the Liberals on the CBC panel. Interesting.

8:26pm -- Uh oh, Tories... Very early Brandon West results have Scott Smith in the lead. Southdale: Selby leads Reimer. Both by fairly high margins. No surprise: Goertzen (Tory House Leader) wins Steinbach.

8:24pm -- Live from the Tory Headquarters. They're putting on a brave face. Brent Pooles is naming Brandon West, La Verendrye, Riel, Assiniboia, and The Maples as their targeted ridings.
8:20pm -- My list of ridings to watch: Rossmere, Brandon West, St. Norbert, Southdale, La Verendrye, Radisson, Fort Garry, Inkster, Seine River, River Heights, Wellington.

8:18pm -- Early quote of the night: "It would be very strange if Mr. Dyck didn't pull it out tonight."

8:14pm -- Minnedosa gets its first mention of the broadcast. Keep your eye on this riding... If the NDP doesn't finally breakthrough here, the party may give up on the constituency (and the Yellowhead region) next time around.

8:13pm -- Thank goodness Paul Thomas is providing commentary on CBC tonight. Can't imagine how the other "political scientists" would fare.

Sunday, May 20, 2007

Reflections on the Manitoba Election Campaign

In the interests of remaining neutral during the campaign, I have refrained from commenting on these pages in the past month. (A novel idea for a blog, I'll admit, but a somewhat noble one.)

Here are my observations, now that the race has come to a close.

(1) The best idea of the campaign.... Ironically, it came from someone who wasn't even running. Mayor Sam Katz wants the $158 million worth of provincial grants replaced by a single grant equivalent to 0.892 points out of seven PST points. That's the same amount of cash as this year, but the grant will grow as tax revenues increase in future years. Why none of the party leaders took him up on this offer -- especially the Tories, who need to make inroads in the city -- is beyond me. It wouldn't cost much fiscally, and downloading some of the responsibility (read: heat) to municipalities, themselves, is not a bad idea. The city needs some long-term flexibility, and would be rewarded for economic development (through increased tax revenues). Long story short, in an era when big city mayors' demands are becoming more and more extravagant, Katz's request is one of the most reasonable we've heard in a long while. (It mirrors a similar proposal for cities to share 1% of GST revenues.) Hopefully the victorious party will give him what he wants. Honorable mention: Doer's pledge of $300,000 for libraries.

(2) The worst idea of the campaign... Hands down: McFadyen's promise to bring back the Jets. Let's be fair to Hugh: if you read the fine print of his press release and statements, he never really 'promised' to bring the team back -- he only committed to 'trying'. But no one reads the fine print during an election campaign. Thanks to mockery in the local and national media, the Tories have gone into a tailspin from which they're unlikely to recover. (The knockout punch that was never thrown: Doer should have thanked McFadyen for suggesting that, after 8 years of NDP government, the Manitoba economy was finally healthy enough to support an NHL franchise that left under the Tories' watch.)

(3) Dumbest move of the campaign... Hands down: The Greens selection of an undergraduate student as their leader. In a year when the environment had the greatest potential to be an election issue, the party shot itself in the foot. The Tories' Jets gaffe will have temporary effects; this one could kill the Greens' chances of ever becoming a viable party in Manitoba. (A legislated 4-day work week? Come on.) Honorable mention: Gerrard's public insult of low-income "ghetto" dwellers. (To his credit, at least he recovered well.)

(4) Smartest move of the campaign... Doer managed to get McFadyen to spend almost an entire week talking about Gary Filmon. In particular, the Tories were forced to discuss their sale of MTS (which they promised not to do), and goaded into promising not to sell Manitoba Hydro. This derailed an otherwise focused campaign. Honorable mention: Hugh's choice of ties.

(5) Gutsiest move of the campaign... McFadyen and Borotsik are right: It's time to end the tuition freeze in Manitoba. The Tory policy even allows students to vote on the issue, with the results of the referendum binding on the government. It's not a popular position (at least among parents), but kudos to them for recognizing the need to give universities the money they need. (See http://deepredtory.blogspot.com/2007/02/frozen-tuition-socialist-myth.html). For the record, the Liberals promised to lift the freeze, as well.

(6) The biggest surprise of the campaign.... The New Democrats offered the least in the way of promised spending, and the Conservatives, the most. New spending, including tax cuts, totalled as follows: NDP: $400m; LIB: $876m; PC: $888m. This kind of data begs for an academic study, no?

(7) The biggest disappointment of the campaign... Nobody discussed the plight of Manitoba's First Nations. The media tried, but the parties ducked the issue (again). At some point, someone's going to have to address this. It's a provincial disgrace.

(8) What was missing from the campaign... Like him or not, Gary Doer has proven himself one of Canada's most adroit politicians. His transformation of the socialist New Democratic Party into a third way "Today's NDP" is incredible. The one question that neither the media, nor the Tories or Grits, seized on was a simple one: Who are TOMORROW's NDP? If he wins his third straight majority -- the first since Duff Roblin, by the way -- chances are Doer will not tempt fate by campaigning for a fourth mandate. This means Manitoba will have a new premier sometime before the end of the decade. Who will it be? (Best guesses: Ashton, Chomiak, Selinger, or Oswald.)

(9) Ridings to watch.... Every suburban riding is up for grabs. But what else is new. Also, watch Brandon and the Yellowhead ridings.

(10) A prediction.... Doer loses between 2 and 5 seats, max. He holds a majority, and somewhere around 42% of the popular vote. Turnout drops to just over 50%. The Tories will sew up the South, making inroads in Brandon and along the Yellowhead. They may claw back a few of the South Winnipeg ridings, but not many. The Liberals will hold both of their seats. Final results: NDP: 32; PC: 23; LIB: 2.

(11) What to watch after the campaign... Who will be in Doer's cabinet, and which portfolios will they be given? Look for Oswald to stay on in health, as she is being groomed for the leadership race to replace Doer. Chomiak will stay on in Justice, and Selinger in Finance. Ashton might fit in well as Environment Minister. If anyone from Brandon or Rural Manitoba survives, s/he will be put in under Resources or Agriculture. Aside from that, it's anyone's guess. Also, watch how McFadyen performs in his first full term as Opposition Leader. He's taken his lumps in this campaign, but -- aside from the Jets gaffe -- appears to have held his own. My sense is that most Winnipegers want a little while longer to get to know him better. He's young and dynamic, and -- most important -- a moderate. Sound familiar? (Doer had to wait 11 years...)